Thursday, September 20, 2007

September 19th 2007 saw two incidents which could happen probably once during a lifetime of a person in the cricket crazy nation of India which also happens to be the second fastest growing economy. The benchmark Index of the stock market BSE rose by over 650pts and cricket player Yuvraj Singh hitting six sixes in an over, first time an Indian achieved the feat in any form of International Cricket.

There were a few things common between both incidents apart from the fact that both happened the same day –

BSE had been rising, amidst fears of US slowdown, a possible contagion in equities due to subprime turmoil and soaring crude prices; investors were unsure of what lies next. Fed happened to please the equity markets with a
Indian cricket team is admired by advertisers for the simple reason to tap a billion consumers in India, but it has been going through a rough patch. Amongst ICC ratings its ranked even below Pakistan. Indian cricket team happens to be the most unpredictable of the lot also, when they win they like to do it in style or most of the time loose timidly. Even after a fantastic start they lost to New Zealand in the previous game. The task was uphill to beat England in order to retain chances of making it to semi finals of the ongoing Twenty-Twenty championship. It was the turn of Yuvraj Singh, a fabulous one day cricketer and the finest player discovered off late, to delight everyone with a shower of 6's at Kingsmead (SA), six sixes off an over on way to score the fastest 50 off just 12 balls. Yuvraj was demoted in the batting order because he could not produce his magic in T20 version even though he had a great series in England 2 weeks back.

0.5% cut in key rates. Though most analysts talked of 0.25% rate cut. What triggered such a decision is still being debated, different schools of thoughts argue - 1) is US really going towards a recession 2) was the rate cut higher than 0.25% only to please credit and equity markets 3) Fed may have gone overboard in rate hikes earlier and now correcting itself 4) does it suggest rate cuts across the globe 5) would it mean that credit in US becomes cheaper and flows into equities globally. Atleast for the day markets celebrated with a 650 pt surge in India. Though Indian markets recently decoupled for a few trading sessions from other markets and had achieved its earlier highs, but people didn't seem to take much note of it.

Indian cricket team is admired by advertisers for the simple reason to tap a billion consumers in India, but it has been going through a rough patch. Amongst ICC ratings its ranked even below Pakistan. Indian cricket team happens to be the most unpredictable of the lot also, when they win they like to do it in style or most of the time loose timidly. Even after a fantastic start they lost to New Zealand in the previous game. The task was uphill to beat England in order to retain chances of making it to semi finals of the ongoing Twenty-Twenty championship. It was the turn of Yuvraj Singh, a fabulous one day cricketer and the finest player discovered off late, to delight everyone with a shower of 6's at Kingsmead (SA), six sixes off an over on way to score the fastest 50 off just 12 balls. Yuvraj was demoted in the batting order because he could not produce his magic in T20 version even though he had a great series in England 2 weeks back.
People are keenly watching developments in US to assess the impact of a US slowdown if any.
Indian corporates and capital markets should be in a position to tap cheaper capital abroad as the risk appetite of investors may increase. Real Estate analysts have started to believe that the credit to the industry would pick up again and demand for housing would fuel real estate prices. The Realty Index has risen over 12% in just two days. In cricket for Indian team to make it to semi-finals, they need to beat South Africa tonight. It's a task which many won't even think is manageable with SA in full strength and Indian team has issues in every department bowling, fielding and inconsistent performance in batting. Going ahead Indian team plays Australia in several one dayers and test matches.

Now that both these incidents have happened many things remain unclear –

People are keenly watching developments in US to assess the impact of a US slowdown if any.
Would there be more rate cuts in offing by the Fed, and what's RBIs plan of action
Indian corporates and capital markets should be in a position to tap cheaper capital abroad as the risk appetite of investors may increase.
Real Estate analysts have started to believe that the credit to the industry would pick up again and demand for housing would fuel real estate prices. The Realty Index has risen over 12% in just two days.
In cricket for Indian team to make it to semi-finals, they need to beat South Africa tonight. It's a task which many won't even think is manageable with SA in full strength and Indian team has issues in every department bowling, fielding and inconsistent performance in batting. Going ahead Indian team plays Australia in several one dayers and test matches.

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